POST-GAZETTE - Res Publica

2010, A Very Good Year for Republicans

by David Trumbull -- December 31, 2010

2010 ended as a very good year for Republicans with the December 21st release of the official U.S. 2010 Census Apportionment Counts showing gains in states that tend to vote Republican and losses in some of the most Democratic-leaning states. Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution calls for a census of the nation's population every 10 years to apportion the House seats among the states. The 435-member House of Representatives which will be elected on November 6, 2012 and convene as the 113th Congress in January 2013 will see a shift of 12 seats as ten states lose Representatives and eight states gain.

The biggest gains will be in Texas (which gets four more Members of Congress) and Florida (gain of two). According to the list on Wikipedia of party affiliation of the governors who will be in office in 2011. Both of those states will have Republican governors and Republican majorities in both State Houses and State Senates. Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah, each of which will gain one additional seat in Congress will also have Republican governors and Republican control of both houses. Nevada picks up one seat and will have a Republican governor but Democrats in control of both houses. Only Washington gets an additional seat and will have both the executive and legislative branches controlled by Democrats.

The biggest losers are New York and Ohio, which each will lose two seats. Eight states each lose one seat: Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

States gaining or losing seats will need to redraw their district lines. Other states that keep the same number of Representatives may have to redraw their lines also to reflect shifts in population within the state. Party control of state legislatures and governorsí offices will largely determine whether that re-districting favors Republicans or Democrats. According information on the website for the National Conference of State Legislatures, Republicans, in 2011, will hold the governorís office and majorities in both houses of the legislature in 20 states, including, as noted above, in six of the eight states gaining seats. Democrats will enjoy such across the board sweeps in just eleven states, including Illinois and Massachusetts, both of which are losing seats.

With numbers like these, itís no wonder Republicans are looking forward to November 2012. In the meantime, hereís wishing all the Post-Gazette readers a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2011.

[David Trumbull is the chairman of the Boston Ward Three Republican Committee. Boston's Ward Three includes the North End, West End, part of Beacon Hill, downtown, waterfront, Chinatown, and part of the South End.]